Intermarket Analysis: Profiting from Global Market Relationships (Wiley Trading)

"John Murphy has done it again. He dissects the global relationships between equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities like no one else can, and lays out an irrefutable case for intermarket analysis in plain English. This book is a must-read for all serious traders."
-Louis B. Mendelsohn, creator of VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis software

"John Murphy's Intermarket Analysis should be on the desk of every trader and investor if they want to be positioned in the right markets at the right time."
-Thom Hartle, President, Market Analytics, Inc.

"This book is full of valuable information. As a daily practitioner of intermarket analysis, I thought I knew most aspects of this invaluable subject, but this book gave me several new ideas. I thoroughly recommend it for beginners and professionals."
-Martin Pring, President of Pring.com and editor of the Intermarket Review Newsletter

"Mr. Murphy's Intermarket Analysis is truly the most efficient and unambiguous way to define economic and fundamental relationships as they unfold in the market. It cuts through all of the conflicting economic news/views expressed each day to provide a clear picture of the `here and now' in the global marketplace."
-Dennis Hynes, Managing Director, R. W. Pressprich

"Master Murphy is back with the quintessential look at intermarket analysis. The complex relationships among financial instruments have never been more important, and this book brings it all into focus. This is an essential read for all investors."
-Andrew Bekoff, Technical Strategist, VDM NYSE Specialists

"John Murphy is a legend in technical analysis, and a master at explaining precisely how the major markets impact each other. This updated version provides even more lessons from the past, plus fresh insights on current market trends."
-Price Headley, BigTrends.com, author of Big Trends in Trading

In the interest of disclosure, let me say that I do not know Mr. Murphy; nor has he or his publisher solicited this review. His editor at Wiley, Pamela Van Giessen, also edited a book I wrote on The Psychology of Trading. Knowing Ms. Van Giessen's integrity in a business that too often lacks that virtue, and having enjoyed Murphy's first book on the topic, I was eager to give "Intermarket Analysis" a thorough read.

Murphy begins with a review of the markets from the 1980s, recapitulating themes from the first book, including the close linkages among the currency, bond, commodities, and stock markets. His discussion of the role of oil and gold in economic slumps and booms is first rate, as he traces the interplay among these markets during the first Persian Gulf War and then during the "stealth bear market" of 1994. Throughout these presentations, Murphy captures qualitative relationships between markets that provide inspiration for traders interested in quantitative modeling. For example, the relationship between oil stocks and crude oil prices and the CRB/Bond Ratio are promising tools in capturing shifts in commodity prices that tend to impact the stock indices. I was particularly intrigued by his presentation of sector relationships during economic/market cycles, including the relative performance of cyclical and consumer stocks.

Where Murphy's book really shines, however, is in its explanation of intermarket relationships in a deflationary environment. He captures these relationships in his account of the recent bear market, drawing upon such diverse intermarket relationships as semiconductor stocks, Japanese markets, the Australian dollar, and the yield curve. This alone is a major advance over his previous text. At the end of the book, he traces the start of the recent bull market, illustrating the transition from a deflationary environment to an inflationary one--a pattern that also occurred after the great bear market of the 1930s.

Weaknesses in this book, from this reviewer's perspective, include an overemphasis on charts and visual data at the expense of quantitative treatments and a glib treatment of the Kondratieff Wave (long-term economic cycles). That having been said, this is an excellent market book. The presentation of sector rotation during economic cycles alone provided enough ideas to keep me busy with modeling efforts. Chart-based technical analysts and quants alike can find value in Murphy's work.

Brett Steenbarger
www.brettsteenbarger.com


Excellent Book   May 1, 2005
brazen999 (Florida USA)
15 out of 16 found this review helpful

I find myself always picking up this book for questions involving intermarket relationships. Stocks, bonds, commodities. There are even historical reviews of intermarket relationships in the book as well. Don't be fooled by the title, the author does discuss US markets very well. It is an easy read without technical jargon. Sure, the Phd of economics would probably be quite bored with the material but for the layman and BA student....this is a terrific reference with all meat and no fat!


Doing the Topic Justice   February 11, 2004
P. Matt Blackman (Vancouver)
11 out of 13 found this review helpful

As John pointed out in an interview for Stocks & Commodities magazine with the author, it was his original goal to write the quintessential intermarket book but then found the topic so involved that each chapter could have become a book. There is just so much to discuss. Attempting to cover anything but a small snippet in a review is sheer folly. It is also impossible to do the book justice.

One technical analyst sent this author an email recently saying that she considered Murphy's first book on the subject, Intermarket Technical Analysis, to be one of the top three books on technical analysis. Those who liked his first book will absolutely love this one. This reviewer considers it to be one of his top three current technical analysis/market references.

Murphy is perhaps the only man alive today that could have written Intermarket Analysis with such conviction. As he mentions early in the book, anyone with the benefit of hindsight can choose what indicators would have worked best. There is no skill in that. What gives him the credibility to analyze what was happening at the time is that he was doing it daily for his subscribers to the MurphyMorris Market Message Newsletter online and much of the book is documented with excerpts and detailed charts written at the time the events were unfolding.

The book is well written and very readable with plenty of examples to demonstrate each key point. The business cycle and all important market cycles are discussed from the seasonal best time to be in the market (November through January) to the 54-year Kondratieff Long Wave Theory. It will be a book that one will read repeatedly as well as an essential reference to come back to time and again as new market events unfold.

There is also little doubt that this book will become a market best seller. But it will not become the sole domain of the technical analyst and trading community. Everyone who plays the markets will want to read it. It is not simply about trading or technical analysis, but about markets and how to operate within a global framework in the four asset classes and effectively gather crucial up-to-the-minute intelligence to make the best-informed decisions.

Murphy makes one fact crystal clear. There are a number of essential intermarket relationships of which to be aware, any one of which could save your financial bacon at the right time. The implied corollary is that ignorance of any one of them could prove fiscally catastrophic.

Markets have become so interdependent in the last decade, a correlation that continues to strengthen with time. If those who suffered financial ruin between 2000 and 2002 had read his first book, how many of them could have avoided huge losses and even profited from what occurred? We will never know for sure but is it a risk they anyone can afford to take, especially when considering that the cost of avoidance (cost of the book) is less than $50?

(Re-printed from Traders Mag with permission.)

Matt Blackman - Technical Writer/Reviewer Email: matt@tradesystemguru.com
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Contributor to Stocks & Commodities Magazine, Working Money, Traders.com Advantage, Active Trader, Traders Mag (Europe) and SFO Magazine


Worth Every Penny By A Factor Of 10   January 14, 2007
David Rankin (Ashland, Ky. United States)
2 out of 3 found this review helpful

Probably the most bizarre thing about the stock market is it's explosive rallies and catastrophic crashes. Both occur with little warning and seemingly with little reason, but by studying intermarket analysis you quickly learn the relationship between currency trends, commodity prices, bond yields and their strong influence on the bond and stock markets. This book is one that every serious investor should own.


the big picture of global markets   February 21, 2010
photondn (Florida, USA)
1 out of 2 found this review helpful

John Murphy's Intermarket Analysis is a thesis that markets such the currency, commodities, bond, stocks, and market sectors are and have been inter-related.

This is a pretty good book. This book offers a very big picture of the global markets. If you're trading experience only encompasses the past 3 years, this book give a bigger picture from 1980 and 2003.

Note that this book was copyrighted at 2004, so there is no mention of the 2007-2008 crash. Nevertheless, this book shows relationships between markets and offers ideas on why one influenced the other.

Before reading this book, I mostly looked at daily, hourly, and 30 min charts. After reading this book, I now look at the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Also, I was pretty weak on what happened during the 80's, 90's, and early 00's. This book explains a lot about those years.

I would recommend this book to intermediate investors who want to understand the behavior of markets and who want to learn the direction of markets from 1980 to 2003. If you're a beginner investor, you might want learn basic technical analysis. This book is not a primer.